tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5031801052696130392.post2379025144762586328..comments2023-10-31T08:06:28.554-05:00Comments on Kaspar's Market Insights: 1930 All Over Again?Market Seerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11426404712713948515noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5031801052696130392.post-47614897973864202402008-06-11T15:31:00.000-05:002008-06-11T15:31:00.000-05:00Well I am probably closer to 1.3 to 1 so based on ...Well I am probably closer to 1.3 to 1 so based on those statistics I am more bearish than you. :)Market Seerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11426404712713948515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5031801052696130392.post-11120553968779282092008-06-10T13:53:00.000-05:002008-06-10T13:53:00.000-05:00OK, I'm a bear, but c'mon, we're not going to star...OK, I'm a bear, but c'mon, we're not going to start making plastic dog doo in the U.S. and exporting it to wherever.<BR/><BR/>80% of the world exists on less than $3000 a year. We're the consumers of trinkets; there's no one to replace us. But, food/energy. Sure, everyone wants to consume that.<BR/><BR/>I guess the biggest difference between now and the '30s is the dollar is now just a piece of paper. I'm not a gold bug by any means, but I could see the value of forcing discipline on our government. The repudiation of the gold standard by FDR/Nixon was probably the biggest power grab by any American ever, and unconstitutional as h---.<BR/><BR/>At any rate, for those reasons, I'm much more long than I am short. If you want to make money in a variety of market conditions, I think you need to know how to bat from both sides of the plate. Don't really care what I do, just as long as I make money. I would guess the stuff I do is very similar to you. Didn't want to leave the wrong impression of a screaming short-only bear. Typically, 10:1 long/short, but right now 3:1.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5031801052696130392.post-55241317257610206412008-06-09T22:24:00.000-05:002008-06-09T22:24:00.000-05:00LOL..I enjoyed the comment. The reason it is note...LOL..I enjoyed the comment. The reason it is noteworthy is because billions of dollars depend on what he and his croonies decide to do with interest rates even if he is wrong. The 2 year had another violent move after the speech making and losing billions for investors.<BR/><BR/>I tend to agree with you though as someone who manages money I must guard against completely buying into your points. I must let it unfold before intellectually going where you went. <BR/><BR/>It does not pay to be a bear doom and gloom guy and it does not pay to be a bull rosy colored glasses guy. It pays to be right. One powerfuly counter to your point is I think the rest of the world will continue to grow, though albeit at a slower rate, and America with the weak dollar will continue to produce various goods. My guess is the trade deficit number tomorrow will be fairly decent. <BR/><BR/>I think your best point is that we are not as tough. The government will bankrupt this country because the massses will whine and whine about a foreclosure or higher gas prices. In the 1930s people lived with eating from soup lines. The government will probably kill itself before letting that happen again. History is full of great empires who collapsed because the people became soft and valued pleasure and leisure over what got them to their pinnacle in the first place, hard work and an attitude to conquer, not time to sip a martini.Market Seerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11426404712713948515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5031801052696130392.post-5058356588435719102008-06-09T22:11:00.000-05:002008-06-09T22:11:00.000-05:00How could it possibly be newsworthy to quote someo...How could it possibly be newsworthy to quote someone like Bernanke saying things are going to be great?<BR/><BR/>The man was a professor, and his big promotion was to a civil servant job paying only $190k (I saw this in the FT). Fed Chair pay pales in comparison to equivalent positions throughout the world. But, it's probably adjusted over the years using COLA, which is based on core CPI, LOL.<BR/><BR/>I think the next recession is going to be much worse than the 30s. We don't have our factories anymore, people are less educated, we're not as tough, we're in serious debt as a whole, we're about to retire as a whole (baby boom), we're no longer exporting oil (we did back then), we have a current account deficit... I could keep going, but what's the point?<BR/><BR/>Essentially, since we've blown our natural resources driving hummers around, we're going to be competing with the likes of Japan and Western Europe on pretty even terms now. That's like taking a donkey to the Kentucky Derby. We're going to get smoked.<BR/><BR/>The one game we were good at, "financial engineering," has lost its foreign suckers. It's not much use to feed on ourselves... I guess there's wealth reallocation, but nothing that would be positive for the U.S.<BR/><BR/>The only chance we have is our military, but that would be so uncool.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com