Thursday, September 20, 2007

Why the Credit Markets will Struggle for Awhile Regardless of the Fed

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/9831008/c_9831067?f=home_todayinfinance

Everyone is talking about the housing and mortgage market now. Next year (maybe about this time) my guess is it will be the corporate bond markets. Some of the deals that have gotten done are just insane. I should know, I looked at many of them. Fighting the credit CLO crazy in the last year until very recently was like trying to stop a waterfall with a comb. You either closed your eyes and did the deal or got left behind. Similar to I am sure what went on in the U.S. mortgage market. You could see how the deal was not any good and how it was not pricing risk correctly but if you said no somebody else said yes and you were left with dollars that if you did not utilize investors would ask back. The housing market started turning south really about, I don't know, call it 18 months ago. The credit markets stopped its foolishness about two months ago. Timing these things is horrible but defaults will rise and the ease of credit to these questionable borrowers will be missing for alot longer than most people expect.

No comments: