Jeremy Grantham Interview - Run Don't Walk to Read This

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120251582071855267.html?mod=b_hps_9_0001_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_right

Unfortunately you need a subscription or a hard copy of this weeks Barrons. If you cannot get it but want to read it shoot me an email. Jeremy is right there with George Soros and Will Rogers in overall bearshiness. He is one of the best though always really really early (He started talking about the housing bubble in late 2003 and the equity bubble in 1997. The lateness of the latter almost cost him his firm).

Few excerpts.

This occurred at a time of what I believe is the first global bubble in pretty well all asset prices, so there is a much greater degree of broad-based vulnerability.

and

Ten years would be a perfectly normal period of time to go from a peak of a great bubble [like the one in 2000], based on the history of bubbles and their aftermath, to the low. I have long thought that 2010 would be when we hit the biggest discount to fair value. Trend-line value on the S&P, by the way, in 2010 is 1100. (The S&P 500 traded at 1334 late last week.)

and

By a nice coincidence, those averages suggest the market will decline to 1100 in 2010, which is exactly the number we get to from a completely different technique -- building it from the grass roots through fundamental value. We do that by taking average corporate-profit margins, actually a generous average, assigning a normal market price/earnings ratio, and that gives you 1100 in 2010.

On affordibility of homes

In the end, we, the people, have to be able to afford the houses and they are affordable at something around 2.8 times family income. When they peak in Boston at 6 times and nationally at 3.9 times, you know you are in for tough times.

On the dollar

Personally, I'm long the yen, the Singapore dollar and the Swiss franc. I'm certainly not long the pound: shorting the pound is a better bet than shorting the dollar.