Sunday, September 28, 2008

Deadlier than an RNA Genome and a Protein Capsid

An RNA genome and a protein capsid of course is what makes up the poliovirus. This aptly describes what is happening within the world financial system as the infection continues to spread now manifesting itself over in Europe with Belgian Fortis, Germany's Hypo Real Estate, and Britain's Bradford & Bingley all on the verge of failure. European government have jumped attempting the American two step in trying to save their own troubled institutions. Whether they are better at America's "capitalism" than America is yet to be seen.

Without the bailout's imminent passage and fear exhaustion in the markets, I would normally be thinking rally right about now but there are so many cross currents that such a call is hard to make and I am leaning the other direction.

The hedge fund fiasco partly caused by the SEC I think is really going to pick up steam in October which could put alot of pressure on equities from a technical standpoint. Also this credit crunch is finally making it's way on Main Street and it is coming with a roar. Fertilizer companies were down 5 to 15% on Friday as a result of speculation that farmers can't get credit to buy fertilizer. That is beyond scary. Your talking world wide famine consequences if that doesn't change. Today I talked to my brother in law who is in charge of research and design for the U.S. largest bow and arrow manufacturer and in the past month they have just gotten walloped with tightening credit standards in lines they are allowed for their customers. Sonic announced on Friday that GE Capital will not be making any new loans to the restaurant firm. Main Street is now in the cross hairs.

The U.S. futures which were pointing up are now pointing to a solid lower open. Won't the lawmakers be upset if all their effort is met with a dramatic sell off in the stock market this week. That should be an interesting conversation with constituents as they point to saving their 401k and the U.S. economy with the bailout as the DOW spirals downward.

The U.S. government has essentially propped up the stock market for two weeks now (it has been weak scaffolding holding it up at best) but now what do you do? This could get really ugly.

1 comment:

Justin said...

Yeah, just because you can see it coming doesn't make it any more palatable.

These days I've started letting my mind wander when thinking about just how bad it could get...and I don't like what I'm thinking.