Monday, November 16, 2009

Ponzi Continued

Big move up in the market today. We broke through major resistance I would say the odds are for another 5 to 10% move at this point UNLESS we move back under resistance in a big reversal in the next day or two.

Why is the market up? Simple, the ponzi continues. Very bad economic data today means more juice for the market. So as our country continues to head towards failure, the market continues higher.

What was the economic news. Inventories down gain. Now down 13.4% year over year but the ratio to sales is still elevated. So still no mystical inventory rebuild that has literally been touted for 8 months as a reason to buy.

After showing alot of improvement the last few months the Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index plunged 11 points to 23.5. New orders fell from 30.8 to 16.7 shipments declined from 35.1 to 13. Very bearish for the economy but oh so bullish for the stock market. (The market was expecting a number around 30).

Retail sales were heralded to dumb Americans as good but Wall St. is not fooled. They know how bad the numbers are and so adds to the reason to buy. YOY sales were down 1.7%. When you consider how bad last October was, that seems like a very bad print.

Some of these numbers are not horrendous but it definitely points to a non V shaped recovery if you can even use the word recovery. Here is the dirty little secret though. Wall St. does not really want a recovery. That would mean the equity markets would go down.

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