Friday, November 5, 2010

QE Impact on Japan's Stock Market in 2001

I had been wondering about this. From David Rosenburg:

Let’s learn from the Japanese lesson with its QE experiment. The day the Bank of Japan launched the program on March 19, 2001, the Nikkei surged 7.5%, from 12,190 to 13,103. It went on to make a fresh high on May 7, at 14,529 (just under two months after the announcement) — rallying another 11%. Fully three-quarters of the post-QE rally to the May highs occurred in the first four days. And that is all she wrote.

Three months later, as it became painfully obvious that the real economy was not responding well to the shock therapy, the Nikkei index slid 16% to just over 12,000. Moreover, the day before 9/11 it had already tumbled all the way down to 10,500 (down 27% from the nearby post-announcement high and 14% lower than the day of the announcement itself!).

That is a huge move higher in a short amount of time on the QE announcement. My follow up question would be how much the QE was telegraphed. In otherwords did the market know QE was coming for sure like it was in the U.S. How much was the rally priced in here and how much do we still have to go?


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