Sunday, December 30, 2007

Do Not Follow Anyone Blindly

http://www.atfreeforum.com/billyticketswin/viewtopic.php?mforum=billyticketswin&t=109

This is why you don't follow anyone blindly. I love seeing what other great investors are doing. Many of my ideas come from other great investors (I would say typically I only have 3 or 4 ideas a year I come up with completely on my own) but you have to do your own work and the investment has to pass the common sense test. Many great investors are tied into the financial markets and the same circles of thought and are susceptible to group think like anyone else. In late August and September the common thought was that financials were caught up in a liquidity crises. This Pavlovian thought was built upon many similar circumstances in the past 20 years. Only thinking truly contrarian, outside the box would have caused someone to avoid financials and recognize that this was not a liqudity crunch but a credit (solevency) crises.

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