Thursday, September 25, 2008

Update to My Big Worry

China is vehemently denying those rumors (post mentioned below) but it has not stopped credit spreads from blowing out again. The TED spread is screaming. The A2/P2 spread (This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day non financial commercial paper) is beyond anything I think has ever been seen at over 410bps.

Which brings me to more Asia news. Yesterday there were pictures of the third largest bank in Hong Kong experiencing a bank run with people lined up for blocks trying to get there money out. Here Yu Yongding, a former advisor to the Chinese central bank, is calling for quick action to avoid a panic sell of U.S. debt. Oh my goodness what would such a panic sell do to the U.S.?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anZHfo6tQi60

Japan, China and other holders of U.S. government debt must quickly reach an agreement to prevent panic sales leading to a global financial collapse, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.

``We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,'' Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23. ``If there's no selling in a panicked way, then China willingly can continue to provide our financial support by continuing to hold U.S. assets.''

An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, ``causing a collapse,'' Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations.

China, Japan, South Korea and others should meet soon to seal a deal, said Yu, a former academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. The talks should involve finance ministers, central bank governors and even national leaders, he said.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Can I paraphrase your big worry? You didn't want to be alive when the world discovered that the U.S. economy was a con man's perpetual motion machine.

Well... I just keep trading. Do what I do until it stops working.

Market Seer said...

Agree with your first statement.

The problem I have with the second statement is that it sounds sort of like former CEO of Citigoup Chuck Prince comment about dancing as long as the music plays.

I figure I am close enough to the situation that I will be ahead of everyone in clearing out my bank account and taking all the cash to the local pawn shops and buying every piece of jewelry I can get my hands on. Joking ... sort of.