There has been no bigger debate over the last two years than that over deflation and inflation. Perhaps the biggest deflationist Bob Prechter debates one of the biggest hyperinflationist Peter Schiff in the two videos below. They both believe the same thing, a complete collapse is coming in the next few years. They couldn't be more different in how that collapse will occur. Schiff believes we are heading towards a hyperinflation and Prechter believes deflation will come with a vengence and that banks will fail and people will lose deposits etc. (hyperinflation comes on the back end)
Unfortunately they both are just throwing out scenarios. There is little to go off of to conduct fundamental analysis. Collapse is coming, that can be fundamentally analyzed, how it occurs can't because it is based on social mood and political decisions. For my two cents, I think Prechter will be proven right but not to the extent that he is predicting. Deflation will lead to inflation. Dow will never get to 1,000 like Prechter is predicting. Hyperinflation is a political event and Dow well above 1,000 will cause collapse to jump start massive inflation.
I really think one of the more important things to listen to in 2010.
Part 1
Part 2
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
Thanks for the link to this interview. There are so many angles on this.
I think Prechter is making the better case because he is taking into consideration more of reality. Unfortunately, to explain things clearly, laying out the arguments and counter-arguments requires multiple book length treatise that few would ever read. Our ability to process complexity is limited so we prefer simple answers and simple models. But alas, the economic world is not a simple linear predictable beast. It is a non-linear, non-equilibrium, path dependent, complex interaction of systems and sub-systems.
If anyone asks, I push the path dependent idea first. People seem to understand that we will get a different result if we raise taxes in 2011 rather than leave them at current rates. If they are more economically inclined, they will understand that Europe moving to a tighter monetary union and sharing the pain is very different than breaking up the EU/EMU.
If they are still listening, I try to lay out some cases where the expected simplistic story didn't occur. For example, in 2008 we heard that oil going over $140/bbl was a sign of runaway inflation or Peak Oil. And yet a few months later oil traded to the $30s. Similarly, you will hear that "A central bank in a country with debt denominated in their own currency can force as much inflation as they want." And yet Japan has gone about 20 years in some form of economic stagnation. Apparently, there are more forces at work than mentioned in the simplistic story.
At that point the discussion is either about human nature, the limits of Capitalism, or "should I buy gold?"
Post a Comment