Thursday, August 30, 2007

Bin Laden Option Trades

http://www.thestreet.com/s/terror-trade-street-abuzz-with-bin-laden-options-trades/newsanalysis/optionsfutures/10377063.htmlpuc=googlefi

Before you just throw this out as something meant only for mild curiosity, don't. "The Wisdom of Crowds" one of my all time favorite books speaks to special markets like this and how remarkably they tend to predict something. The problem is you usually never know until after the fact. Now a 50% drop in the S&P seems absurd but what about 20%? Like I said seems laughable but I would at least give it a wink keeping it in the back of your mind. Paragraph from the story reminds us of the predictive behavior some of this stuff freakishly has.

Those concerned about the worst-case scenario recalled that large put contracts were placed on airline stocks, notably American, a unit of AMR and United Airlines, in the weeks leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.

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