Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Back in Texas

I am back, barely. Sleep has not been at a premium lately though fortunately I can sleep on a plane. I come back and the market greets me with an explosive move to the upside. This was to be completely expected. It was a matter of if not when. These things can be contagious. I still have 1325 as the next trigger point if we see a prolonged multi week rally. I personally do not think we will at this moment but who knows. The first trigger of course was Wells Fargo. I was tempted to short them today. Just another bank who is doing completely the wrong thing. How many times have I heard a company annouce a dividend raise just to be raising capital 6 months later at much lower prices. I am not saying Well Fargo is a troubled bank, I have never really studied them but it just seems reckless to even consider raising a dividend even if you wanted to unless you wanted a bump in stock price to raise capital. Even if you could haven't things kept getting worse than what people expected? Save the capital in case you need it.

Tomorrow is a key day. Volume seemed moderate today so there did not seem to be that much conviction on the buy side. If you have perceived okay numbers from Merrill and JP Morgan you could have a rally with some legs. We continue to be oversold so it would not surprise me at all.

Well I got more work to do and reading to do. If I see something interesting I will throw it up here but I have to get ready for my next trip which is on Sunday.

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