Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Bill Miller Done?

Somewhat interesting article about Bill Miller. It argues that Bill Miller succeeded in a time era for a reason. That he isn't doing anything differently but that we are in a different era. Something I have thought about and briefly mentioned before that certain investors do better or worse in different eras (5 to 25 yr time frames) because of the way they are wired. So the 91 to 2000 was difficult for more inherent pessimist than optimist where as 2000 to 2008+ has been better for investors who are more pessimists than optimists. This is no moral right or wrong with the way individual investors are made up but it can make a difference in performance during that time frame. That is why the greatest investors have track records of 30 to 50 years. You know they can perform during many time periods.

Miller likes financial, technology and Internet stocks. And he typically holds some retail, media and health-care stocks, too. However, he hates most commodity businesses, including oil and copper. Those sector biases were perfect for the markets of the 1990s but have hurt results since oil prices started to spike three years ago. It makes sense that Miller did well in low-inflation environments and has fared poorly in today's world, with financial stocks in crisis and natural resources very precious.

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