Thursday, October 16, 2008

More Comments on 2009 Earnings

There was a question in the comments about what the bullish estimate for earnings are. Below is a graph that shows consensus estimate for earnings. My guess is there are estimates above consensus but consensus is absurd so I will view that as bullish. I am not exactly sure what this consensus number is but it lies somewhere between 90 and 100. If the consensus numbers were to materialize, it would be the strongest economic recovery in earnings in the history of the United States. Now don't assume that the market is pricing off of consensus. Like the rating agencies taking something from AAA to AA, the markets long discount true earnings before some idiot sell side equity analyst guy lowers his estimates. So the question is do we continue to color over the Great Depression line as we are doing currently or do we start seeing a more normal rebound 6 to 18 months out. That is the trillion dollar question. Thanks goes to Jody for sending me this graph.

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