Thursday, October 30, 2008

Volatility - Means the Patient Is Very Sick

This what I have been arguing. We are probably still going higher in the short term but this market volatility, even to the upside, shows the patient is very very sick. It is not a good thing that market goes up 7%. According to this site 9 out of the top 10 up moves on a percentage basis in the markets in history has happened either this year or in the heart of the depression. You can expand that and 19 out of 20 follows the same rule. The one outlier was after the crash of 1987. In that crash it was technical glitches, not a system that is dying underneath.

http://www.mybudget360.com/massive-market-volatility-is-not-a-good-thing-biggest-percent-gains-and-losses-occur-in-economic-crisis/

I am amazed at how many people think that suddenly with a 10 percent gain on Monday that somehow the market is now in good shape. This could not be further from the truth. Massive percentage swings occur during economic turbulent times. You do not want to see 10 percent up or 10 percent down days. What you do want to see is a market that is steadily moving up based on earnings reports and an economy that is growing at a healthy pace.

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