Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Something Smells Fishy

Been watching the markets all day long a little more intensely than usual after yesterday's FED action and something is not seeming to add up. Markets have been in rally mode all day until recently grinding there way higher from the morning lows. Dollar has been getting slaughtered with gold and most commodities rallying but oil. Now oil has been acting funny all day and has just gotten slaughtered down over 4.5% as has natural gas. Its not adding up. Now besides the recent trading relation of the dollar and oil, over the long term the direct correlation is actually not that high. Oil's price correlation is much more related to economic activity and its impact on supply and demand. So the fact that oil is down (alot) while the dollar is down is not that big a deal but for oil to be getting slaughtered while other commodities are moving up, fixed income is moving up, equities were tacking onto their gains, and the dollar is moving down? The ways it has traded today with any buying interest getting slammed? Something smells fishy. I have no idea and may never know (I don't have any oil position) but I would not be surprised if some energy fund is blowing up. I thought I saw some headline about Pickens fund allowing redemptions now with 65% of the money looking to be redeemed. The markets are pulling at the reins but so far the energy pits seems to be keeping the market at bay. Let's hope it is not some massive fund that could cause systemic issues.

I even heard some fears that the FED may know something we don't yet about some fund blowing up which is why they moved as aggressively as they did. I have no idea but you always have to consider such a possibility.

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