Friday, September 18, 2009

Not As Bullish Next Week

I am headed to Arkansas this weekend to hang out with friends, play Texas hold em and watch football. Should be fun. The last two weekends I wrote posts saying basically everything looked bullish in the short term. For someone who is a bear, it wasn't fun. I have been saying for months that I have been expecting a top in August or September. I don't have very many days left for that prediction to come true. Next week, for the first time in three weeks we at least have a chance at a top (top may have occurred yesterday, who knows). Next Wednesday is the Fed meeting. Remember the August meeting they punted the QE decision and said they would wind down through October. Well they are down to around $13 billion out of the remaining $300 billion. With some Fed governors getting worried about the dollar, I would be surprised to see them extend it. Also, Thursday is the August existing home sales number. I am expecting this number to be a miss and be very bad for the market, especially financials.

I am just talking probabilities, so it may not play out like I think probabilistically it will but at least there is a chance that the market could rock lower next week starting the next long decline.

Also, there are finally some other things that I watch as well that could be pointing to the market having at least the opportunity to roll over. Copper is getting slammed today as inventories continue to build. Copper is often times called Dr. Copper because it is the most economically sensitive commodity and it joked to hold a PHD in economics. China corrected its steep sell off last month, hit its 50 day moving average and got slammed last night down 3%. We will see if that continues. Financial problems overnight in Japan and England causing a bounce in the dollar. We will see if that continues. If the Fed doesn't continue QE that could also be very bullish for the dollar.

Anyway, I don't know. The rally doesn't seem to want to stop but for the first time in three weeks there is at least a window of opportunity for it stop. Not everything is screaming to me being bullish in the week ahead. Ideally I wouldn't mind seeing a new high on Monday or Tuesday offset by a hard sell off at the end of the week. Who knows, just looking for signs.

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