The Fed releases their Fed statement today. Everyone is assuming it will basically a non event and it probably won't be BUT the first thing to glance at is the MBS program. If somehow the Fed tweaks that language or pulls a surprise extending that program, watch out. Dollar tumbles, stock market and commodities surge. However, it would provide an unbelievable short entry into Volcker's testimony on Tuesday. On the upside 1108/1110 ish is the first bogey. 1130 would be the second.
The housing data has been very weak lately (including the new home sales number that just came out, seasonally adjusted down 7.6%). So the Fed may just pull a surprise, especially with all the drama around Bernanke. I really think that will be just noise. Yes it will be bullish in the short term but I feel like things are changing in Washington so much it won't matter more than a day or two.