Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Quick Take

Well today was definitely frustrating for many. Scenario A started to play out. That burst what many bulls were hoping for, a spike to take some profits. The bears didn't really get to play either. We are left wondering.

The S&P future volume surged. Yesterday we didn't break a million contracts trading hands. Today we broke 2 million. Up 100%. However, the NYSE volume was still a pathetic 980 million shares traded. Up about 25% or so from yesterday bust still did not even clear a billion.

My quick take today was that it was a win for the bears. Unfortunately, instead of being a 4th down conversion, I feel like it was just a 3rd down stop. We still have fourth down ahead of us. The interesting stuff to me was actually not the Fed release but everything going around it. The Euro was very weak early this morning. Some weak data out of Europe and sovereign bond spreads started widening out again. European government bond spreads have very quietly moved to two and three week highs. Copper was weak as was oil.

There is very little economic data tomorrow so the attention shifts to the jobless claims number. It is only significant if we have another big spike. If it stays the same or declines a little, I don't think it will mean much. The decline won't mean much because it will confirm that the spike last week wasn't significant and it is still stuck in this no man's land of 450 to 460k ish number.

So the jobless claims number could be a catalyst for a move lower as could be the June retail number on Friday. Or it could come out of Europe. Watch the Euro and European government debt spreads. Or maybe we go back to no volume, inching our way up until Labor day. Without a break below 1110 (maybe 1100), 1140 is still a very real possibility. Nothing is ever easy is it? I was shorting some today (both pre and post release) as the Fed mess is passed us at least for awhile.

I am traveling again tomorrow so not sure when I will be back blogging.

1 comment:

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