Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Bloody Wednesday?

Shzzz, the market pressure is palatable. You can feel it. Tomorrow is going to be one interesting day. Technically, tomorrow starts in a few hours with the release of China's PMI. Than you have the ADP employment report tomorrow morning before the market opens. The really big one other than the China PMI is the United States ISM released at 9:00. Anything below 50 on China PMI and below 52 on United States ISM should be a major event.

Technically the market is on a precipice. We have bounced off of the 1040 S&P area countless times and on the upside bounced off of 1070 countless times. We are going to break up or down very very soon. If we break higher I think up we go again to see 1100. I was shorting today though it is far from clear that we break down. Right now if your short you just need strong hands being willing and able to sit through a week or two of rally before once again we come back down to potentially break through the 1040 levels.

While yesterday the volume did not exist, today the volume was the highest in over a week and may have been the busiest day for all of August. It is end of the month so that may be part of it but what is interesting was the heavy volume and the market basically finished flat. Two ways to look at that. The bears used alot of bullets and couldn't get the market to move down or the bulls used alot of defensive maneuvers and couldn't get the market to move higher. Take your pick. I did not like the very end of the day (like last 120 seconds) surge in volume in the e mini futures and push higher. If it wasn't for that I would be alot more comfortable than I am currently.

So we have a few more hours to wait. 1,100 or 1,000? It makes sense the market closed at 1049.33. The market rarely likes to give clues.

Is there any chance a horrific ISM number causes a big bounce. You know, the worse the number the more the government has to intervene type of thing? I don't think so. The big money on Wall St. look at the ISM as one of the most important numbers. If it falls apart (like I said below 52, expectations are around 53 I think) the big money I think will start moving and selling. It is possible there is a lag of 24 hours or something but I think as the knew ISM number gets loaded into models that selling will take hold in a major way.

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