Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Complete BS Number

ISM just came out at 56.3. There is no way. Completely BS number. I don't care if you think the bears are on crack or if you think the world is full of tooth fairies and santa clauses, the ISM numbers do not come anywhere close to reality. Either the ISM number is wrong or about 10 other numbers are wrong.

A - the ISM is made up of regional manufacturing reports. Most of these regional subindex get reported. The Philly Fed, Kansas City, Dallas, NY Empire, etc. etc. These indexes all showed dramatic slowing if not downright contraction. The strongest sector for various reason has been autos. That gets caught up in the Chicago PMI. Even that slowed down in August as portrayed yesterday.

B - the ISM number is also split up into various components. One of those components is employment. The regional reports were showing contracting employment pretty much across the board. The ADP employment report that came out today showed contraction for the month of August. You had a large spike in jobless claims. How in the world does ISM employment go to 60.4 from 58.6??????? Makes no sense.

Some of the important components didn't look so hot. New orders went down. As did backlog of orders. And inventory up.

For today the bears get blown out of the water. The bulls get to romp and play. And a jacked up world remains jacked up. The conspiracy individuals can have some fun today also. Did somebody known yesterday what the ISM number was going to do? Remember that last MASSIVE surge in volume and futures the last 120 seconds of the trading day yesterday? And how did this ISM number come in so far from any sense of reality?

How does this play out going forward? I don't know. The rest of the day and the way the market trades will be interesting. Definitely puts 1100 back on the table as a possibility. Like I said, the big boys put high emphasis on the ISM number. We could have a few good weeks. Or this is a spasm. I guarantee you it sure killed several bears.

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