Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Fed Forecast

Okay I am rolling on the floor laughing at the Fed Forecast. I am laughing at the markets reaction which has no clue what to do (as it probably shouldn't) and the forecasts the Fed has given. I may write more on this later but I would sure like to know what they put in their models. They may be right but garbage in typically = garbage out.

Highlights
Core inflation at 1.5% to 2.0% in 2009 and 2010. Which numbers are we looking at? The doctored I am assuming. This may be right if we enter into a deep recession. It is not right with their second forecast.

Fed cuts '08 GDP to 1.8% to 2.5%.

If we do end up having that rosy scenario of growth (I firmly disagree) then inflation will be much higher.

But it goes with their overall theme. We see risk to inflation and to growth. Translated - HELPPPPP!!!

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