I am not looking for this stuff. It is just what I am finding interesting because it is so counter to consensus and what to me seems obvious and what history would say. As a side note if the S&P breaks that 1395 to 1400 level in any meaningful way I do think we are probably headed to 1440 and 1450. The markets are trading on techincals and hope right now.
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM2008Q1NP.pdf
This is a debt shop and so alot of macro discussion. If you have interest in that stuff dive in. Two basic takeways.
Long economic downturn.
The point for investors is not what type of recession we are experiencing, but rather how long the downturn will last. Our conclusion is that our present economic difficulties will persist for at least two years.
Inflation will end up not being a problem.
A related question is whether the higher CPI readings, combined with poor economic growth, will result in stagflation, a condition last witnessed nearly three decades ago. Four considerations suggest that these fears are not likely to be realized.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment