Interesting article Robert Rodriguez of the FPA Capital and FPA New Income Funds. I recognize the speech also from last June. I read it last September and referencing him to looking at a crystal ball is not an exaggeration at all. (Thanks goes to Nathan)
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/01/pf/funds/best_fundmanager.moneymag/index.htm?section=money_pf
Industrywide, the typical fund has nearly 100 stocks, with less than 25% in the top 10 and an average holding period of less than one year. Last June, Rodriguez gave a speech that warned of the coming credit crisis so accurately that it reads with hindsight as if he had been peering into a crystal ball.
Taking his own warnings to heart, Rodriguez raised cash to levels high enough to withstand a nuclear war: 43% in FPA Capital and roughly 66% in New Income. In December he declared a formal moratorium on buying any stocks or high-yield bonds until he felt it was safe to invest again - essentially putting both portfolios into a state of suspended animation. As of press time he has not lifted that moratorium.
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