2009 Reality Check

Aren't we in a new calendar year? How can we return to the ways of 2008 so quickly? Well, simple Sherlock, 2008 did not leave us and most likely won't for quite awhile. The markets were rudely awakened to the fact that the economy continues to get worse with the release in of the ADP report of 693k jobs loss in the month of December. OUCH!

Well if your a bull the bright side is your didn't break 900 on the S&P. The big numbers for technicians seem to be 888 and 900. If we break those, many markets technicians may be willing to throw in the towel on the latest rally and lower we go.

I spent sometime watching the tape today which I haven't done in awhile. Alot of people would find this useless but I feel like I do gain from it. I have 75+ tickers on various trading screens and I'll watch them and then something will catch my eye and will pull up a graph over the last couple of months or weeks. Its a good way for me to catch something I may be missing. Anyway what caught my attention today was how the money center banks / regional banks have not been participating in this rally and in some cases even headed lower. BB&T Corporation, ZION's Corp, Cullen Frost, even JP Morgan to name a few have not participated in this rally. JP Morgan (I have no position) had a dramatic battle around 28 going into the close that for markets nerds like me was terrible entertaining. 28 is a fairly strong resistance point volume really picked up with huge blocks hitting the bid and ask. If these banks don't start participating or if someone like JP Morgan truly breaks down the rally may be closer to the end than I thought. Several of those banks were the frustrating shorts of 2008 but may finally be buckling to reality as commercial real estate continues to decline.

Anyone I would guess we are within 10% of the next top before headed lower. I still think the odds are we get one more final push upwards to 1000 or above on the S&P but with jobs numbers like we had today who knows.