Good piece in Forbes on the "Oracle of Doom" Naasim Nicholas Taleb author of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0202/020.html?feed=rss_news
Imagine you are sailing on a dark night in iceberg-strewn waters. The ride is calm. But you are always just a few yards away from disaster. This is how Nassim Nicholas Taleb views the world. The 49-year-old options trader turned bestselling author has been warning about catastrophic market swings for years. And now, in spectacular fashion, he has been proved right.
He is right on this one:
Taleb scorns math models from economists that purport to explain the markets. All existing models for calculating risk, he says, should be thrown out because they underestimate extreme price swings. "The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad," he says. "It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine."
Even more right on this:
Taleb, who feels that society undervalues those with useful warnings
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