Today has to be viewed as a big win for the bears. Win may be the wrong word. It at least helped neutralize the whole situation. After yesterday, there was a good chance we would be up a 1% or more. Case Schiller Index came in much better than expected (as I expected) and the market made a go of it before consumer sentiment came in lower and volume returned. We saw the sell off at the end of the day again after yesterday hiatus.
Today's market action brings back my potential scenario that I wrote about on Sunday. I talked about Wednesday and Thursday being the big days in the market. It looked like Monday was going to nullify that but the market today was able to bring that back into play. The ADP employment report comes out tomorrow at 7:30. Have no idea what that is going to do and than the Chicago PMI at 8:45 (all central times). To me that is the big number. That could be a miss and possibly a big miss. Housing I follow so closely I usually have good feel on those numbers, not so much with manufacturing but because of the cash for clunkers pulled forward production the last couple of months, this months index reading may not be all that it is cracked up to be. At least that is my thought. From a technical perspective, tomorrow is a key day also because of the monthly and quarterly close. A close above 1065 to 1070 will get the technicians yapping about a very strong technical picture for the month ahead. When can we get back to fundamentals??? Please!!
I have been unimpressed with the dollar action the last couple of days. If we were getting a major reversal I would have expected stronger move to the upside than we have gotten. Hopefully it won't start breaking down. If it does it may nullify everything else.
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