Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Richard Russell and Dow Theory

I mentioned Richard Russell in my Barron's overview and someone posted this link taking issue with a couple of Richard Russell's comments.


Instead, what caught many investors' attention was the following Russell sentence: "Interestingly, at the 2002 low... I believed the bull market was still in its 'expensive' and speculative phase, and that there would be a major recovery, with probable new highs." Oh yeah? That certainly wasn't my recollection of what he was saying at the time.


My hunch was right.

Throughout 2002, in fact, Russell consistently argued that the primary trend of the market was down. And far from giving bullish noises on October 9, 2002, the day of the low, Russell argued that the bear market was very much alive and well.

Anyway I thought I would bring it to your attention since I mentioned it. Thanks goes to whoever posted that link. It doesn't mean Richard is wrong but it is good to know the fallacies in his Barron's article. The editorial points this out:

After all, Russell's market timing performance puts him in the upper echelons of the market timing newsletters the HFD has tracked since 1980.

Take his points for what they are and use them to input into your overall model for the market.

1 comment:

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