Wednesday, November 5, 2008


The title really isn't fair. The market I don't think sold off because of the election (and I am no Obama fan). You had the election rally yesterday. Today was buy the rumor and sell the news. This combined with just awful news today and profit taking after being up 18% in 7 days and you get an ugly day. It was definitely profit taking and I figure the market discounting the jobs number that comes out on Friday. I figured we would see 950 before we saw 1050 but didn't expect it to happen all in day. I don't think we are done from rally mode that this is a normal pullback in a counter bull rally but depending on how bad the jobs numbers are on Friday, who knows. Arcelor Mittal who makes 10% of the entire steel in the world came out and said this is the biggest crises going back to the Great Depression and that steel demand has fallen off a cliff. The stock down 20%. Cisco after the bell (the CEO is one of the biggest cheerleaders in the world) said revenues were down 8% yoy in the month of October!!!! For someone like Cisco that is just massive!!!!!

Another concern is that you have this dead period between November and January when you get a new administration and the steady flow of dollars to the problem may slow down as those in charge lose interest in keeping things propped up since the election is over.

It will be very interesting how the next five trading days play out. I don't think we are done going up as a counter trend rally but things could start snowballing the technicians.

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