Friday, November 21, 2008

Tim Geithner Rally

I had been expecting that the next rally would be on the Treasury Secretary announcement. We got it today. Combine that with the normal madness on options expiration day and you have moonshot higher.

I am personally really disappointed. I was hoping that Paul Volcker would be announced as the new Treasury Secretary. I have heard from good sources and read elsewhere that he was offered the job.

I really don't know much about Tim Geithner. So I don't really have an opinion. I just don't know. CNBC is all positive on him but you would not expect anything different. One thing that sort of worries me is that he is coming from the Fed. The Fed is supposed to be politically isolated from the whole situation. This has almost completely disappeared and tapping a Fed official as Treasury Secretary can only make it worse.

How long this rally lasts, who knows. I was tempted to short at the close but felt the probability set up wasn't good enough in my favor. If you have a Citigroup resolution over the weekend or Geithner unveils some plan the rally could have legs. Doubt it but not easy enough money for me.

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