Thursday, March 19, 2009

A View on China

I found this writeup in the The Atlantic totally fascinating. I agree with the general premise and that is China should be compared to America during the Great Depression more so than Japan in the 90s or the Soviet Union in the 80s. Paints a pretty bleak picture for China in the short term (though it also contradicts itself a couple of times). I disagree with some peripheral conclusions (like it was worse for the United States than Europe during the Great Depression, I don't believe that to be the case) but many things to ponder. It is lengthy but I highly recommend it. Thanks goes to Peyton.

By the way, early tomorrow morning I hit the road again. So I will be out and traveling. March has been a busy month.

China's Way Forward

You never know which statistics to believe in China, but in January a local official in Dongguan told me that at least 1 million factory workers had recently lost their jobs within five miles of where I was, and probably another million in nearby manufacturing areas of Guangdong province.


In proportional terms, today’s China is five times as reliant on foreign customers to create domestic jobs as America was in 1929. So unless China can find a way to keep selling when its customers have stopped buying, it will face a proportionately greater employment shock.

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