Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Bull vs Bear

I report - you decide.

Bull Case

* Broke key resistance at 870 to 875 in the S&P. Next stop 900.
* Personal consumption (a leading indicator) was up in the latest Q1 report. Demand is returning and the lagging indicators are the only thing flashing warning signs.
* Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) leading the way.
* Breadth continues to improve.
* Credit is now participating with the rally.

Bear Case

* Most overbought we have been since the markets top in October 2007
* The Personal consumption data is Q/Q annualized seasonally adjusted (a lot of room for measurement error and the comp was very easy). This is not popping up in the micro data. Retailer by retailer.
* Heaviest insider selling since October 2007
* Biggest rally since 1933.
* Transportation numbers are showing negative signs.
* XLF - the financial index not breaking out like the markets.

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