Sunday, April 5, 2009

IMF - Sellers of Gold

I have talked about the possibilities of the IMF selling gold before and now it seems official. With the markets rallying and everything "back to normal" in the world this will probably push gold down in the short term. I would not be surprised at all to see gold with a 7 handle. Over the longer term, I do not think it squelches the gold thesis at all. In general, world governments are horrible market timers. (Ask Switzerland how there huge gold sell around 300 a ounce went several years ago) Either way this should cause gold to move down and provide a great entry point for new positions and adding to exisisting positions for those with a longer term perspective.

The IMF plans to sell 403 tonnes of gold but speculation that additional sales were to be considered was played down by analysts. The sale of the IMF gold is likely to be conducted under the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which is due to expire on September 26.

John Reade of UBS said that because of the limited time before the expiry of the CBGA and the legislative hurdles that needed to be cleared (including a US act of Congress), it was almost guaranteed that a third five-year central bank gold agreement (CBGA3) would be announced, probably at the IMF spring meetings where more detail on the planned gold sale would materialise.

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