Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Japan's Export Decline Accelerates

This was only briefly on the front page of Bloomberg but I think it is potentially important. The export decline accelerated from June to July. One data point does not make a trend but things have stabilized or have been getting better. This is a big number that may indicate that trend may be ending. If nothing else it puts a big dent into the V shaped recovery argument. Once again a data point does not make a trend and this actually beat expecations. Still, this bolsters my thoughts that the best U.S. data will be July into August. We lag Asia a little bit.

From Bloomberg:

Japan’s exports fell for a tenth straight month in July, an indication that overseas demand won’t be strong enough to sustain the nation’s recovery from its worst postwar recession.

That doesn't really tell you that much because I am assuming that is yoy declines. This is the money sentence.

Shipments abroad tumbled 36.5 percent from a year earlier, steeper than June’s 35.7 percent drop, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo.


Declines in shipments accelerated in all major regions: Exports to China fell 26.5 percent, shipments to the U.S. slid 39.5 percent and those to Europe fell 45.8 percent, according to today’s report.

Yikes. China growth story? Hmmm.

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