Sunday, August 30, 2009

Looking for a Top

I was ready to scream at the top of my lungs on Friday that we had hit a major top. It started out looking what a classic blow off top looks like. Good news from Dell and Intel and in line personal income and personal spending. Market gaps higher and looks set for a 3% gain when it gets just slammed down. Plummeting..and then, it caught and slowly started drifting higher all day. If we would have finished down 100 points I would be telling everyone I saw we had our top. Now I am not so sure. Friday may have been the top or we may have another push or two higher. Either way I think we are very very close. August to September has been my time frame looking for a top and we are in the middle of it. Tomorrow we get Chicago PMI which I think should be pretty good. Tuesday comes the ISM index which also should be pretty good. The market expects alot from those numbers so it may be another sell the news. There are 2 very important technical numbers we need to get through. One is the 1015 area. The other is the 975 to 980 area. We break the second and we should be headed quickly to 920. To sum up, I will be very surprised that if Friday was not our top, that we don't see it this week.

I have talked to several people who have been bearish who have been gunning the market all the way up. There response now is we may be at a top but the market needs to prove it to me before I try to short it again. The bears are giving up which is exactly what you need for a top.

China was down again last week. That makes four weeks in a row. Friday (our Thursday night) it was down almost 3%. Another thing to watch was the Japanese elections over the weekend where the ruling power for five decades lost. It will be interesting to see how the Asian markets react (i have no idea).

Anyway, very close to a top. Maybe a few percentage points higher but the market is tiring. You can feel it.

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