Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Crackling Ice

Fascinating day today. The markets only sold off a little bit but the last few days have been good for my overall confidence as things I thought would happen are starting to transpire.

The last few days it has been like if you were standing on a frozen pond when all of a sudden you hear a crack that sounds like a gunshot. Doesn't mean the whole ice sheet is about to collapse and there may be alot more crackling but you know the thing is in danger zone.

Europe continues to look like a wreck. The Euro hit a new low as Portugal was downgraded and more disarray out of European leaders on what to do with Greece. The 5 year bond auction was UGLY!!!! Some are saying it is the health care aftershock. Either way the bond market did not like it!! Interest rates surged and this was in the face of horrific new home sales and very anemic durable good orders.

The stock market hung in there, surprise surprise but I think even that may be getting close to an end. The odds of another spike next week I think are fairly high. You have the end of the quarter and the jobs number which will be very good because of census hiring that all of Wall St. is salivating over. There is an old saying that bull markets die on good news. The odds of some type of top (possibly a major one as the ice is showing strains of holding) is growing larger by the day and may happen with the jobs number.

Economic data has definitely stalled, the bond buyers look like they may have started calling the bluff of the government from continuing its free spending ways, and Europe is a freaking mess. Watch out if the Japanasse Yen breaks higher against the dollar. Another sign that the soverign risk trade has started.

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