Thursday, March 11, 2010

The Markets And Where We Stand

Market is in full stampede mode. It seems nothing can slow it down. Today jobless claims missed estimates and the four week moving average moved up again. Can't blame this week's on the report on the snow but no one cared.

We are at a critical junction but it sure seems it is full speed ahead for the markets. Retail sales come out tomorrow for February and between what we have seen from the retailers and what I know about the tax refunds being front loaded in February, I think the number will be really good. Essentially all the indexes are hitting 52 week highs except the Dow. It is a little over 100 points from a new 52 week closing high and a 150 points from an intraday high. If that hits, the odds go up we will have a burst to 1200. The bigger number tomorrow may be the Michigan Sentiment number. The retail sales number comes out before the bell opens and the sentiment number comes out around 9 central. The last hope for the bears in the short term I think is the retail number comes out, the market is moving up like ti normally does, the sentiment number comes out really bad and the market gets slammed down with the Dow not confirming the dow transports.

Is that what I think is going to happen? Not really, just giving you the bear hope. As it stands right now the bears don't have much going for them. Greed mania is back in style.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Probably positive retail sales today will be taken as negative. Deflationary forces should be in play in next few weeks because of QE ending.

Fed needs more domestic savings towards govt bonds now. Recent auction results are showing that too.