Sunday, March 28, 2010

Greece Bailout Lacking

Pretty bullish day on Friday. If the market doesn't start selling off decently tomorrow I think you can expect new highs by the end of the week. End of the quarter and the March payroll print that Wall St. is salivating. If the market doesn't roll tomorrow/Tuesday I really think that could be a sell the news event.

Good op-ed out of the UK. Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard titled Europe has left Greece hanging in the wind. Can be found here.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine summed up the deal succinctly: "No member of Europe's monetary union should be liable for the debts of another state. Bilateral credit from Berlin for Athens is not the same as German acceptance of responsibility for Greek debt."

This shatters the assumption since Maastricht that monetary union leads inexorably to fiscal union. By drawing the IMF into Euroland's affairs, Germany has broken the spell and reduced EMU to a fixed-exchange system with knobs on, like the 1930s Gold Standard that it so resembles. No wonder Jean-Claude Trichet at the European Central Bank is cross.

It goes on to explain some of the consquences and the small amount of money that has been committed to the problem. The thing is like like the "stress" test, it may put the pressure off currency markets for awhile. In the long term it means nothing and probably an additional reason to sell.

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