Tuesday, June 8, 2010

More Churning

It was as I speculated yesterday, the markets were to oversold to muster enough juice to get through 1040. We went down twice and amidst some heavy thrashing bounced both times. Going down the second time threw me for a loop because once we bounced I figured that was it. I was covering quite a bit at the open though looking back I obviously wish I would have done more but it gives me some room to look at adding short exposure between 1070 and 1100.

Besides some outright crash the best scenario for the bears is to bounce around here for a day or two staying below 1070 and especially 1080 working through some of the oversold conditions building up energy to really bust downward.

I passingly glance at technicals and my technical friends are being very vocal that the technicals are saying to buy for a decent bounce. Makes it very tough because we are coiled up to the extent where the wrong piece of fundamental news sends us crashing down. I would say technicals over and over again had sell spots during the 2009 rally and the market just kept powering higher. Why it is easier to be a fundamental person because if you get your timing wrong but are still fundamentally right you can just sit awhile.

There isn't much economic news this week though you do have some numbers coming out Thursday with the jobless claims and Friday with retail sales and consumer sentiment. With no real economic numbers tomorrow, unless something develops out of Europe we should continue upward tomorrow I would suspect.

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