Thursday, June 10, 2010

Yep BP'd Again

Looks like yesterday was nothing more than the market being BP'd. Fool you once than shame on you, fool me twice than shame on me. Well I guess shame on me. Thought there was more to yesterday's sell off than simply BP.

The Euro is screaming higher. I am not really that surprised and have mentioned the possibility a couple of times. If Trichet actually had something to legitimately work with I would have great admiration for what he is doing and be buying Euros like crazy. He is doing everything you want if you were the owner of the currency. The problem is the underlying structure of the Euro is not sustainable and so I don't think in the end Trichet will have a chance. I will probably write more on that someday but the in the short term the risk is the Euro has a very sizable rally starting now or in a few weeks. What this means for U.S. equities in not clear as the correlation has been close to one. At some point that correlation will break down but I wouldn't want to bet when that will happen.

Anyway 1070 to 1080 is what to be watched. Think the odds of breaking 1040 have dropped to close to zero. Now we will see what kind of strength we have to see if we go all the way back to 1100. Chopping and grinding chopping and grinding. A least for today we are staying in our range.


Mrs. Watanabe said...

What's the preference, SEC or PAC-10?

Market Seer said...

Ha - the really important question. In general I think the feeling in Texas is one of shock first of all. This seemed to come from nowhere. I think the second feeling (right or wrong) is that a superior confernece is getting taken over by two inferior conferences. Texans I think (correctly or incorrectly) have felt that the Big X was a weak conference and that the Pac-10 was a one or two team conference. (Now with USC in all sort of trouble maybe not even that). So I think in general many Texans are still trying to get a grasp on what went wrong to even form an opinion.

As far as A&M goes I think there is a growing preference for the SEC if we can keep our rivalry game on Thanksgiving with Texas. Unlike the more liberal minded Austin who would fit well in the Pac-10 with Berkley, Oregon, Arizona schools etc., A&M has more ties to deep southern roots such as Alabama, LSU etc. It would likely help recruiting in the Houston and Louisiana markets and would be just an overall better fit on many levels.

However, I think many aggies would see the continued competition with the University of Texas as good for the state and good for A&M and so would be a major obstacle if a deal couldn't be worked out to play them on a yearly basis in all sports.

I have spoken to many aggies (like I said, world economy, who cares, this is the important question) and it seems their is a growing preference for the SEC all things being equal.

themog said...

Well looks like we are going to the SEC now. I was scared of this move originally because I didnt want us to get spanked, but after thinking a bit more, it is by far the better move. What is interesting to hear now is the talk of Texas trying to keep the big 12 lite together in some form. I had been saying all along that they have little to no incentive to move anywhere. why would they risk going elsewhere and risk not be the king of the hill for a measly 10 mill. more in tv money when they make by far more than any other team in the country and by staying get to create their own network.