Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Latest and Greatest form Jeremy Grantham

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/09/17/100250262/index.htm?postversion=2007090505

Higher margins also indirectly raise prices by providing more cash flow for buybacks and takeovers. So high profit margins offer multiple supports for the market, but they will certainly decline. They are the most dependably mean-reverting series in finance: If high margins do not attract greater competition, then a wheel has fallen off the capitalist machine. For U.S. and developed foreign markets, fair value (defined as normal P/E times normal profit margins) is about one-third below today's level, and for emerging markets it is about 25 percent lower.

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