Friday, January 4, 2008

Shower Me with Agriculture

What went up today? Rice, corn, later dated contracts for soybeans, other soft commodities.

What went down? Everything else.

Agriculture is still the only asset class on an absolute basis that I am jumping up and down about. Yes there are individual companies I like but as an entire asset class agriculture is to me the only no brainer though we are due for a 10% correction as it has been nothing but up for two solid months. I recently bought rice and am planning to buy more. The dollar looks like it has resumed its downfall which will only add to the tailwind. Unfortunately buying companies geared towards agriculture is much more difficult. My fund continues to hold MOO which seems like a lazy way of doing but it is up nearly 20% in the last month and I think will go higher (probably considerably). I am looking at companies within the indexes to try and find a better one but this is one of those rare situations where I am bullish on the sector in general but because of individual stock prices it appears you are taking on to much individual business risk. So hold the sector and if Potash or Monsanto stumbles because of a company specific problems you are not hurt to bad. The sector should continue to vastly outperform.

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