Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Slaughterhouse

Commodities are getting the snot beat out of them today. Doesn't matter what it is, the nail is going deep. I just want to punch something. I looked like a genius for all of 24 hrs in covering my copper short. I did not stick with that theme long enough. Grant it I didn't lose money but FCX is down 10% today. That hurts. MOO, an index!, is down 8% today. I sold puts to put me into position to buy more of MOO if it continues to go down or collect a healthy premium if it rebounds. It finally appears that investors are capitulating that the world will be affected by a U.S. slowdown (duh!) though it is punishing everything along the way. (Is Mosaic really going to sell less seeds or lose pricing power because the U.S. enters into a recesion or because China grows at 2% instead of 10%?)

By the way, if it wasn't the prospects of an early rate cut in the next week or two by the Fed I think the market would be down another 300 points today. With "in-line" inflation numbers the door is opened for the Fed to act like they are the big man on campus.

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