Friday, October 26, 2007

Drunken Sailors

CFC is up almost 30% today as the shorts are getting massively squeezed. I have no idea what CFC is worth. I have tried to look at it a couple of times and my eyes roll to the back of my head as it seems like a black box so I do not know if it is a zero or worth a $100 per share. The thing that I find so amazing is that CFC has any credibility left whatsoever that they make the simple statement that they are going to make money next year and all of a sudden they are worth 3 Billion with a B more than they were yesterday. Stupid. How many times over the past 3 years did CFC have any clue of what was really going on with their business always putting a rosy picture on how great their underwriting standards were and that there were no problems. Maybe they make money next year, I don't know. I do know I am not going to think so because they say so.

Another stupid one is Merrill as the shorts are also getting squeezed. The CEO is rumored to be on his way out and the stock is up 7%. Is Merrill worth $4.5 billion more today than yesterday because maybe they get a new CEO? O' Neal has done alot of good things at Merrill. Maybe somebody else would not have taken them down the CDO road, I don't know. All I know is Wall Street typically stumbles around like a drunken sailor but the shots of vodka must have been extra strong as Wall St can not seem to have a clue what some of these companies are worth and the stock prices zig and zag on new meaningless information when it comes to really understanding the value of the company.

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