Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Bunch of Nothing

What happened today? A bunch of nothing. That is the problem. The FED cut by .25% and signaled maybe a pause depending on how you interpret the statement. On the markets side you had a bounce once again stretching that 1400 level but not getting any sort of meaningful breakout. After that test the market quickly retreated but didn't break strongly down being an overall wash for bulls and bears. If your a dollar bull you have to be severly disapointed. The hope across the street was the Fed would come out much more hawkish putting a dagger in the heart of the short the dollar and long commodities trade. That did not happen. As a result the dollar reversed course across the board. The dollar against the Brazilian Real fell almost 3% from its highs earlier in the day!!!! That is a monstrous move for a currency!! The Yen also reversed course. On the commodity front everything also reversed with gold moving up. Corn was up close to new highs before the cut and soybeans had a very nice move upward. All this probably means more of the same and once again that is the problem. Dollar will not meaningfully strengthen in the short term and commodities won't meaninglfully weaken (talking 20% to 30% moves which is what needs to happen if your a U.S consumer fan).

Anyway to sum up another very weak pansy type of move by the FED that doesn't seem to really change anything. The next two days into Friday will be very interesting to see how the markets react.

A couple of side notes. Citigroup closed at $25.27 which was the stock offering price for the secondary offering. Huge bid at that price kept it from breaking that level. In the aftermarkets which really don't mean much it is below that $25.27. Also XLF once again hit $27 just like the S&P tried to break above 1400 and both got beat down.

Bill Gross and his reaction on the Fed cut.

I have alot more little stuff but I need to get on the road to Austin. Should be interesting the next few days.


Anonymous said...

You failed to mention the positive GDP growth. Growth still hasn't fallen off a cliff yet.

Travis said...

The above comment was me.

Market Seer said...

Sorry I saw that as a non event. 1) Government can fudge that number however they want to by a few tenths of a percentage point. .6% is as good as .3% which is as good as .8%. I don't really consider it all that meaningful. 2) It is backward looking versus forward looking. 3) The only reason it was positive at all was because of inventory build which is hard to get excited about. 4) I am not calling for GDP to fall off a cliff. I am calling it for it to be anemic for 18 months or longer which is much different then the consensus and the FED of back to trend line growth by 2009. 5)Cliff diving is subjective. Falling from above 4% to .6% in a year seems like a pretty good jump to me.

You are missing out by not going to the Berkshire meeting. Need to get your priorities straight. lol

Anonymous said...

Can one become a partner on YouTube with copyright content on the

my web page ... vaginal mesh compensation

Anonymous said...

hey there and thank you for your info – I have certainly picked up anything new from right
here. I did however expertise several technical points using this site,
since I experienced to reload the website a lot of times previous to
I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your web hosting
is OK? Not that I am complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will often affect your placement in google and could damage your high-quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords.

Well I am adding this RSS to my email and can look out for a lot more of your respective fascinating content.
Ensure that you update this again very soon.

Also visit my weblog :: Sat Keys

Anonymous said...

Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I've truly enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I'll be subscribing to your rss feed and I hope you write again soon!

my blog green coffee bean extract for weight loss

Anonymous said...

Thanks so much for this. I'm a blogger from Deventer, Netherlands and what you've said here on blogger.
com could not be said any better. Reading through this post kinda reminds me of
my previous roommate, Lily. He incessantly kept preaching about this.
I most certainly will send these ideas to him.
I'm certain he will have a very good read. I appreciate you for revealing this.

My web-site ...

Anonymous said...

Finally, after browsing for some time, I found a blog from which I
was able to genuinely acquire beneficial
details regarding the studies and the knowledge that I
want. There need to be more things like this on Nucleus

Have a look at my web site; Dobra zamek

Anonymous said...

Hey there, my name's Una and I sometimes blog about this subject too. I actually do have a couple of questions for you if you do not mind. Is it just me or does it look as if some of the replies appear they are coming from a bunch of idiots? :-P And, if you are publishing on more social sites such as web 2.0 site list, I hope to keep up to date with you. Maybe you could post some links to any of them?

my web site ... ConnotaciĆ³N

Anonymous said...

I came across this site on http://marketseer. and if I could I want to suggest to
you some useful things or ideas. Maybe you could write your next articles
pointing to these ideas. I'm keen to read more stuff concerning what you're
talking about.

Have a look at my website; problemi