Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Wall St's Trade

We are not 15 minutes into the new quarter but it should be obvious what Wall St. wants to believe. It is the trade that sparked the 400+ point rallies a couple of weeks ago. Long financials, homebuilders, etc. and short commodities. The start of a new quarter is what can spark this kind of stuff from a technical perspective. I do not think it is fundamentally sound but it could last for awhile or it may be forgotten in 48 hours. We shall see.

Lehman is flying today. After finishing down over 2% afterhours it decided to surge premarket and it continues higher. There is no doubt that every fresh injection of capital decreases systematic risk for the entire system. Every fresh injection of capital was met with enthusiasm followed by selling later on days or weeks later. I am not willing to bet this will be anytime different. Obviously some money out there is. Maybe there right.

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