Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Defensive

We broke through 1360. Fundamentally there was no doubt in my mind eventually we would but that was a big number from a technical perspective. We bounced off of it I don't know how many times both today and in the last couple of weeks.

Keep an eye on MBIA and Ambac. Even if you don't know anything about these companies or don't have a position they should be on your watchlists. If we break those March and January lows in the next month my guess is it will be because of these two companies. So far over 2600 May puts have traded today for Ambac with a strike price of $2.50. Average volume over the last 10 days is 180. Someone is betting Ambac is essentially done by the third Friday of May.

Probably time to start looking at getting defensive. I never stopped being defensive because fundamentally nothing has changed but selling calls on some longs or adding to your short exposure may not be a bad idea.

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