Friday, October 30, 2009

Crash Alert

No I don't think we are really entering a true crash but watch out. Indexes are down close to 2.5% right now. VOLUME IS OFF THE CHARTS. The NYSE is having severe problems handling all the orders and already have used backup systems.

What is going on? Why now? Well I could explain yada yada and it probably doesn't have anythign to do it with it. The yada yada is that the GDP report was bearish because it was good like I said yesterday. Created alot of trader interest but fundamentally not a good number because it means the Fed may have to take action which means the dollar goes up and since the only thing that has mattered is the dollar going down it is bearish for stocks. That is a mouth full.

At 8:45 you had Chicago PMI. That was a really bad number last month. It was a really good number this week. Once again, good for the dollar, bad for the stock market.

So that is the yada yada. It may be as simple as it is just time. The majority of the mutual fund world fiscal year end on October 31st. Remember in 2007 the top was in late 2007. They have ridden this rally and it will be a good year for most of them. The end of the year could mean it is time to dump.

1 comment:

Bank Rates said...

Yeah I am worried too as far as dollar is rising. But nevertheless I am still confident that within couple of months the market will show good signs and again dollar will back to its normal.