Thursday, October 29, 2009

The GDP Rally

The market rallied stronger than it should have today based on a truly meaningless number. I think it was last week that Great Britain had an awful miss on their GDP number and the market was up a little bit in London. GDP numbers once reported don't mean anything. Just the excuse for the market to go where it wants to go anyway. Today, this meant it was a bounce. The actual important number was jobless claims and that was not a good number.

Like I said, the bounce was stronger than my liking. I really wanted to see that 1062 number hold. We are at the top of the channel trend since the markets started declining. If we go above 1070ish I would guess the probabilities leave the bears and favor that this, yet again, was another head fake. Slew of economic data tomorrow that is much more important than the GDP released today.

Despite the big rally today, two things that I thought were worth nothing. 1) Yesterday was more bearish than today was bullish. Smaller advance decline ratio on the upside than the downside yesterday and less advancing volume to declining volume than the inverse ratio today. 2) The dollar sold off but considering the bounce, the sell off I didn't think was that dramatic. I thought all the risky assets moved way beyond what such a move in the dollar would normally constitute.

Anyway, we will know if this sell off is the real thing in the next 48 hours or if it was another big headfake. Probabilistically, I think it still favors the bears despite breaking 1062.

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