Thursday, October 1, 2009

First Round of Economic Data

Correction in brackets below:

Jobless claims came in at 551,000. An increase of 17,000. Consensus was 531,000. That is bearish.

U.S. personal income. Up .2% Consensus was .0% to up .1% So that comes out as bullish. As a side note, this data serious has been particularly suspect to me.

Personal spending up .9%. [Nominal personal spending was up 1.3%. This beats the market expectation and would be considered a positive] That is huge but the market was expecting 1.1 to 1.2%. Not sure how important that number really is to the market but it should be taken as bearish.

The potential positive round of data I interpret as neutral. [With the adjustement of personal spending, slightly positive] With Europe down and the dollar strengthening, this sets up a negative tone going into the data set at 9:00 that I think will be bearish.

Today could be a breakdown.


The Duke said...

Looks like this could be the real thing.

c walk said...

Haven't seen a day like that in a couple months. NAS is now sitting at its trend line and DJI and S&P both went below.

What's funny is the bulls will start printing headlines saying we're oversold, when we've been been overbought for 6 months.

c walk said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Market Seer said...

Ha, yeah. Looking forward to hearing about how oversold we are. Or how the market is getting cheap.