Friday, October 2, 2009

It's A Wrap

As predicted the market went down right to 1015 and has bounced strongly. Unfortunately it was all in the futures market around 8:00 a.m. central. I took off 75% of my short futures exposure which I trade in my personal account but unfortunately that started the big bounce and the cash market never gave me the chance to hedge in the fund or elsewhere. Probably wouldn't do much outside my trading account anyway. Fundamentally, my thesis over the last six months is playing out perfectly. I just can't believe the market made it all the way up to 1080.

We may get down to 1015 by the end of the day in the cash market but right now the market is in no man's land.

To dollar had a brief surge but ever since the nfp report, the dollar has been collapsing. The reason of course is the poor non farm payroll means chatter in Washington will be on more stimulus and higher deficits. Very poor for the dollar. Gold is up. This could throw some wrinkles in the continued market decline.

Regardless it has been another good week for the bears. I can't imagine how the market closes under 1015 today and it really doesn't matter where it goes from here for the rest of the day. Who knows but I would expect a consolidating possibly up market next week and than the next big catalyst will be bank earnings starting the following week. My guess is that those will have to be not spectacular to break the big trendline going back to March.

I am heading to Dallas for the Texas A&M vs. Arkansas football game being played in the new Dallas Cowboy stadium. Should be fun.

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